Saturday, July 03, 2004

VEEP ODDS (found via Drudge)

Sen. John Edwards, N.C.

Odds: 3-1 (Chance for the ticket: 25 percent)

Pro: Caught the fancy of Democrats during the primary seasons, starting with a close second place to Kerry in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. Polling around the country demonstrates an appeal to independent voters that Kerry lacks. Con: A one-term senator with no other political experience, he will be dogged by questions about whether he could take charge in the Oval Office in an emergency. And picking him is so widely expected, Kerry would barely make news with this choice.

Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, Mo.

Odds: 5-1 (Chance for the ticket: 20 percent)

Pro: Delivers Big Labor. Could be a slam dunk if Kerry rests his bid on a Midwest play, and might cinch Missouri’s 11 electoral votes. Of all the contenders, he is the most akin to Kerry’s low-key style and liberal ideology. Con: Widely perceived as an unexciting captive of Washington politics with limited appeal to swing voters.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, N.Y.

Odds: 9-1 (Chance for the ticket: 10 percent)

Pro: Like a bunker-busting bomb, picking her would remake this race and provoke a news media frenzy. No one could do more to excite the Democratic base. Her background in health care politics might be an asset as Kerry struggles to spotlight the issue. Con: She turns off some swing voters. And Bill Clinton’s book tour is highlighting his scandalous past more than his supporters had hoped.

Sen. Bob Graham, Fla. Odds: 12-1 (Chance for the ticket: 8 percent)

Gov. Tom Vilsack, Iowa Odds: 12-1 (Chance for the ticket: 8 percent)

Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark Odds: 17-1 (Chance for the ticket: 6 percent)

Gov. Mark Warner, Va. Odds: 19-1 (Chance for the ticket: 5 percent)

Gov. Mark Warner, Va. Odds: 19-1 (Chance for the ticket: 5 percent)

Sen. Bill Nelson, Fla. Odds: 24-1 (Chance for the ticket: 4 percent)

Former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin Odds: 24-1 (Chance for the ticket: 4 percent)

Gov. Bill Richardson, N.M. Odds: 30-1 (Chance for the ticket: 3 percent)

Gov. Janet Napolitano, Ariz. Odds: 30-1 (Chance for the ticket: 3 percent)

Wild Cards: Democratic buzz puts these men on the Veepstakes entrants at the last minute, and with 50-1 odds: Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia (1972-97).

He'd be a fool to choose anyone but Edwards. He needs likability before he can worry about carrying Florida. Edwards may be an ambulance chasing lawyer, but he comes off much more personable than the patrician Kerry.

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