EVERYTHING CHANGES WEEK TO WEEK
Less than two weeks ago Democrats were convinced that they nominated the wrong candidate. Now everything seems to have gone bad for Bush.
Oil Prices are climbing.
Novak says that interest rates will rise before the election.
and, of course, Bush gets blamed for some unruly prison guards.
The 9-11 Commission -- The thing that was supposed to ruin Bush last month left the radar screen the moment Condi Rice testified.
Still, Zogby has John Kerry winning the election. We haven't even had a debate yet.
The 24 hours news cycle is hilarious. The election is so far away that the outrage over the photos will soften. People aren't even angry about 9-11 anymore. People have short attention spans. The news media yaks and yaks about something for a weekend or two and it pretty much loses its significance.
Q: What was the most important factor in the 2000 election?
A: The Gore Team announcement the weekend before the election about Bush being arrested for drunk driving in the 1970s. Bush had a good 3-4 point lead before that weekend and it pretty much disappeared with the arrest news.
Current events spike the polls, but over time the numbers settle back into their default position. If you can time a spike right before the election, and before the numbers settle back to normal, it might be a winning formula.
This election will be won in the 4th quarter by the political operatives that have the best game plan.
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