Junto Boys

BUSH IN ORLANDO

He visited Tinker Field last night the same as he did four years ago the weekend before the election. His internal polling must show a safe lead here because he didn’t bring the star firepower that he had last time. Four years ago he brought Travis Tritt to sing for a half hour followed by Bo Derek and Wayne Newton. Tonight he had a country singer I didn’t know, his brother Marvin and some local Republicans. He made some decent points on the stump last night that I was hoping (yelling at the TV) that he didn’t make in the debates. He reminded voters that Kerry opposed everything Reagan proposed although Kerry constantly invokes Reagan. He also pointed out how Edwards and Kerry were in the minority of their own party for opposing the $87 billion funding for the troops. I didn’t know that. It would have been a strong point in the debates as well. Instead, it’s wasted on the converted.

Bush comes off much better in person than he does on TV. I saw highlights of his speech today on the news and he didn’t seem as warm as he did when I was there.

Today we were on the corner of Mills and Colonial (The Vietnamese section of town) right next to the Kerry-Edwards Headquarters. The Asians were on all four corners holding up Bush signs while the Kerry supporters stood next to them less numerous and obviously weaker in math.

I spotted a few more Kerry-Edwards signs in downtown neighborhood yards, but then again, that real estate has been heavily gobbled up by investors and I bet the lion share of those Kerry people were renters. I am the only one in my neighborhood (50 houses) that has any kind of political sign up. A few weeks ago I picked up a Mel Martinez sign and just today I got my hands on a Bush sign.

It was a letdown that the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Kerry. But then The NY Daily News gave an unexpected endorsement of Bush. I don't think either of those really matters, but you'd like your hometown paper to the right of the NY Daily News.

The polls show that the popular vote is tight, but Bush is polling well in states won by Al Gore. Although Kerry will probably win New Hampshire (won by Bush in 2000) he doesn’t have any clear victory in the other Bush states. I don’t believe the Colorado polls that look good for Kerry. Pollsters missed Colorado in 2002. Bush, on the other hand, looks to win Gore states, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. He even has a chance in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan though I doubt it. I heard a pollster say the other night that Kerry cannot win this election without Ohio, although Bush could still squeak out a win if he lost both Ohio and Florida. The MSNBC favorable/unfavorable ratings show Bush much more liked than Kerry.

In the Senate, Republicans look to pick up seats in both Carolinas, Georgia, Louisiana, and maybe even South Dakota (Dashele). They will definitely lose Illinois and maybe Alaska. They should hold Colorado, Oklahoma, and Kentucky.

In short, even if Kerry were to pull out a miracle, he would still be dealing with the no-tax raising Congress that led to the economic prosperity of the 1990s.