With the resignation of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist seemingly imminent, and the possible retirement of several other justices within the next four years, legal pundits are predicting the first shakeup of the U.S. Supreme Court in more than a decade.
The current court has been intact longer than any other in nearly two centuries. But with the justices averaging 70 years old and several in ill health, as many as four could retire during President George W. Bush's second term.
Turley noted, however, that the replacement of Rehnquist on its own "would not make a huge difference" in the makeup of the court, because it will be "a one-for-one swap for a conservative seat."
"The real change," he said, "will occur if we see the retirement of Justices Stevens, O'Connor or Ginsburg. There are a host of doctrines that currently hang by a single vote. They spread across the spectrum of constitutional and statutory law, ranging from federalism cases to prisoner rights cases to terrorism cases."
Joseph L. Hoffman, a professor of law at the University of Indiana who clerked for Rehnquist, suggested that Bush might head off any Senate battles by choosing more moderate candidates than anyone expects.
Interesting times. Bush has the opportunity to change the landscape for a generation. I am told by people who have met him that Specter is so arrogant that he was just being Specter when he challenged Bush on judicial appointments the day after election day, but I still wonder if that wasn't part of the deal they cut. Specter would have lost the PA primary without Bush and the GOP machine. Bush and Santorum backed Specter rather than true conservative Pat Toomey, and they wouldn't have done that without the promise of some serious payback. The timing and content of Specter's remarks were just too blatant and too stupid not to be calculated. He's a longtime senator, a career politician, and I just couldn't believe he didn't have more sense than that. So I wonder if Specter didn't take a bullet for the president, making remarks that would bring attention and controversy to the Senate filibustering issue, resulting in Specter agreeing to play ball.
I'm not sure I see the downside of Bush moving to the right. The next Republican candidate will be more of a centrist, and as such will be as likely to pick up the resentment vote as the more centrist blue candidate will be.
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