Junto Boys

FRENCH ELECTION

Sober analysis from Mark Steyn on the French situation.

Just as Frau Merkel proved not to be Germany's Thatcher, I would be surprised if Nicolas Sarkozy turned out to be France's Reagan. Not because he doesn't have Reaganite tendencies but because the French electorate, like the Germans, aren't there yet. M Sarkozy did well in the first round because he co-opted many of Jean-Marie Le Pen's concerns. I don't mean the fascism and the anti-Semitism and the oven jokes. It's a tribute to the shriveling of the French political sphere that, by the time of the last presidential election in 2002, an antiquated perennial loser was able to catapult himself into second place. But, in an advanced technocratic state, where almost any issue worth talking about has been ruled beyond the scope of partisan politics, you might as well throw away terms like "left" and "right."

The discontented citizenry often complain about the lack of croissance — that's not a basket of crescent-shaped buttery breakfast pastries invented to mark Christendom's victory over Islam at the gates of Vienna in 1693, but the French word for "growth." The Fifth Republic has entirely missed out on the Reagan-Thatcher booms of the last quarter-century: its over-protected and over-regulated economy has led to permanently high unemployment and a lack of entrepreneurial energy, not to mention various social tensions from the blazing Citroens and Renaults lighting up the sky every night to entire suburbs that have effectively seceded from France to join the new Caliphate.

If you hire a 20-year-old and take a dislike to his work three months in, tough: chances are you're stuck with him till mid-century. In France's immobilized economy, it's all but impossible to get fired. Which is why it's all but impossible to get hired. Especially if you belong to that first category of "youths" from the Muslim ghettos, where unemployment is around 40 to 50 per cent. The second group of "youths" — the Sorbonne set — protesting the proposed new, more flexible labor law ought to be able to understand that it's both necessary to the nation and, indeed, in their own self-interest: they are after all their nation's elite. Yet they're like lemmings striking over the right to a steeper cliff — and, naturally, the political class caved in to them.

London is now the seventh biggest French-speaking city in the world. These are young talented dynamic people who like the same things about France the British and American tourists do — the vin, the cuisine, the couture, the Provencal farmhouses and the Cote d'Azur's topless beaches — but have concluded that it is no longer a society in which you can fulfill your economic potential. They would presumably be Sarkozy supporters, but, like many who feel the odds are stacked against them, they chose in the end to bail out.

As for those who remain, they're sick of crime and unemployment and on the whole could do with rather fewer Muslims on the streets, but they're not yet willing to give up on the economic protectionism and lavish social programs that lead, inexorably, to the crime and unemployment and a general economic and demographic decline leaving the nation dependent on mass immigration and accelerating Islamization.

Jim Hoagland on Sarkozy

His victory benefited greatly from the mistakes of Ségolène Royal, his Socialist opponent. An initially favorable electorate came to see her as incompetent and a shrew. In their televised debate Wednesday, Sarkozy brilliantly adapted Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope strategy by laying back and conserving his composure while Royal flailed wildly at him.

His victory benefited greatly from the mistakes of Ségolène Royal, his Socialist opponent. An initially favorable electorate came to see her as incompetent and a shrew. In their televised debate Wednesday, Sarkozy brilliantly adapted Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope strategy by laying back and conserving his composure while Royal flailed wildly at him.

Youthful and energetic at 52 and short in physical stature, Sarkozy -- the son of a Hungarian immigrant -- originally struck many in France as an unlikely president. But the force of his personality comes through in even casual encounters, and he can be an electrifying speaker on the stump. He considers one of the greatest accomplishments of the campaign his willingness to address politically incorrect topics such as endemic crime and violence in immigrant-inhabited ghettos.