THE SECOND AMERICAN REVOLUTION
Those Thomas Paine videos that Steve has posted on Facebook have energized me. I wrote something very eloquent on this forum a year or two ago which I have been unable to find via search - it must have been written in the comments section. Anyways, I was predicting revolution in America's future and vowing to be true to the cause for the sake of our progeny as our forefathers had sacrificed to ensure our freedom. Now there are national tea parties and reminders from long dead pamphleteers indicating that the time is ripe for revolution while we can still be somewhat civilized about it. Fake Thomas Paine speaks sense and I'm all riled up about it. I'm ready to go. It's game on!
A Blog of Current Events and Ancient Issues.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
BEARER OF BAD NEWS
Periodically I get economic updates from a certain investment firm. Following is some of what they had to say this week.
I am reminded of the National Weather Service alert that went out in the days before Katrina hit New Orleans. It warned of massive destruction of property, flooding, loss of electricity and water for weeks or months, and human suffering on an "incredible" scale. It said in plain English that the area would be uninhabitable for weeks or months. And yet somehow we were unprepared to deal with a scenario that common sense and our own eyes told us was coming. At least with Katrina we could blame it on a natural disaster. This one we created ourselves. The smart money is stocking up on staples before inevitable inflation.
AS WE EXPECTED, THE WORLD STOCK MARKETS BEGAN A SUBSTANTIAL RALLY
It should continue for at least another few weeks, possibly for a few months. It is typical of major bear markets to have major rallies. Initially, we chose to participate in this rally by buying some of the heavily shorted stocks in the financial area, we have been quick to take profits after these rose. More recently, we have been buying more oil and gold shares on dips, and have purchased some technology companies that are selling at very low valuations versus their growth rates. We also view the technology purchases as short term. We view the oil and gold share purchases as longer term.
We will also be buying undervalued companies in various industries in the U.S. and China, which we believe are attractively valued and have proven to have long term growth prospects.
So many absurd moves are being made by the U.S. Government; it is hard to keep track of them.
1. Continued auto industry bailouts are ridiculous, and history has shown time and again in other countries that it is a disaster for taxpayers. Eventually, the auto companies and their suppliers end up failing, but only after massive amounts of taxpayer money has been wasted trying to revive an inefficient, short sighted, and uncompetitive industry. The Swedes are demonstrating wisdom by refusing to nationalize Saab.
2. Quantitative Easing, or in plainer English, PRINTING MONEY TO PAY DEBTS, is another costly endeavor. Our politicians had better read up on their history. This is an immense mistake...and the VERY SAME MISTAKE that has set off disastrous inflations in numerous countries, bankrupted millions of honest citizens around the world, and caused serious economic and social disruptions including wars, revolutions and national bankruptcies.
Politicians opt for Quantitative Easing because it serves their purpose. The politicians had a big role in causing the financial problems, with their decades of cheerleading for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and with their pressure on banks to make home loans to those who had no hope of paying their lenders back.
PLEASE DO NOT GET CONFUSED BY THE CHANGE IN TERMINOLOGY...THE TOXIC ASSETS ARE DERIVATIVES.
The politicians looked the other way and cheered for more broad home ownership while:
· buyers who could not afford the houses they were buying lied to lenders (many downloaded from the Internet fraudulent K-1's and 1099's to submit to lenders to help with their deception)
· real estate finance and sales professionals engaged in several kinds of fraud due to the high commissions and fees they earn from each transaction
· greedy bankers from Wall Street (whose crimes have been plastered in the papers in recent weeks) who created new derivatives that made it easy to sell the toxic assets to themselves and others
· greedy accounting and rating agency participants who helped perpetrate the overvaluation of the toxic assets
Now, to deflect the blame from themselves, the politicians are engaging in the theatre of blame...pretending that they did not know about so many of the things that they have known all along, such as big pay and bonuses to their big donors at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wall Street firms, and in the real estate industry (which was for years the biggest political donor in the U.S.).
The politicians must think the public is so stupid as not to realize what a fraud has been perpetrated by all of the various parties.
Maybe the public is slow to gather the details, but they get the general thrust of the problem. There were too many greedy people making too many political donations to Congress...and too little oversight by the supposed regulators.
None of this is new. Please feel free to review our archives at www.guildinvestment.com to see what we have said about the derivatives crisis numerous times in the years before the problem came to public attention. A further review of our archives will show that we have discussed many global economic and financial events long before they hit the public's radar.
In our opinion, one of the worst mistakes thus far is currently being made, and in a few months or years the public will come to realize it. Just as we notified our readers about the problems with derivatives/toxic assets years before the public became aware of it, this latest tragic mistake is another one that we will discuss in our letters long before the public comes to understand it.
With respect to fixing the banking system, our leaders in Washington appear to be ignoring the advice of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who as one of President Obama's advisors, suggests going back to a much less levered banking system. Paul Volcker suggests returning to something much like the banking system that existed under the Glass-Stegal Act. Instead, the politicians are opting for Treasury Secretary Geithner's plan which includes continuing with a more highly levered banking and finance system.
Why, after all of the problems caused by excess leverage, would they opt for the Geithner plan? Could it be that the financial institutions are too connected, and have been huge donors to many of the politicians at the national level?
England, Switzerland, the U.S., and many other countries have begun to use quantitative easing "money printing" to create a lower currency so they can export their way to prosperity. The countries want to state that they are pro free trade, so they will use the excuse that 'our currency has fallen, and that is why our exports are up and imports are down' argument. This, of course, is a misrepresentation.
When you lower the value of your currency to increase economic activity, it usually leads to more trade, more exports, and more cash in the financial system to spur consumption. Another result is that you encourage inflation. It will work. You will get inflation and perhaps some small economic growth. So it may still be a depression, but an inflationary depression.
The very politicians who are posturing that they care about the elderly, the retired, and low income groups are today creating a circumstance that will devastate those very groups with inflation. Inflation hurts primarily the poor, those on fixed income, and the retired. This is because it is hard for them to work and earn money at the new inflated pay rates. They are forced to sit by and watch as their savings be gradually eaten up by inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of their money.
We expect the U.S. dollar to fall and will invest accordingly.
Periodically I get economic updates from a certain investment firm. Following is some of what they had to say this week.
I am reminded of the National Weather Service alert that went out in the days before Katrina hit New Orleans. It warned of massive destruction of property, flooding, loss of electricity and water for weeks or months, and human suffering on an "incredible" scale. It said in plain English that the area would be uninhabitable for weeks or months. And yet somehow we were unprepared to deal with a scenario that common sense and our own eyes told us was coming. At least with Katrina we could blame it on a natural disaster. This one we created ourselves. The smart money is stocking up on staples before inevitable inflation.
AS WE EXPECTED, THE WORLD STOCK MARKETS BEGAN A SUBSTANTIAL RALLY
It should continue for at least another few weeks, possibly for a few months. It is typical of major bear markets to have major rallies. Initially, we chose to participate in this rally by buying some of the heavily shorted stocks in the financial area, we have been quick to take profits after these rose. More recently, we have been buying more oil and gold shares on dips, and have purchased some technology companies that are selling at very low valuations versus their growth rates. We also view the technology purchases as short term. We view the oil and gold share purchases as longer term.
We will also be buying undervalued companies in various industries in the U.S. and China, which we believe are attractively valued and have proven to have long term growth prospects.
So many absurd moves are being made by the U.S. Government; it is hard to keep track of them.
1. Continued auto industry bailouts are ridiculous, and history has shown time and again in other countries that it is a disaster for taxpayers. Eventually, the auto companies and their suppliers end up failing, but only after massive amounts of taxpayer money has been wasted trying to revive an inefficient, short sighted, and uncompetitive industry. The Swedes are demonstrating wisdom by refusing to nationalize Saab.
2. Quantitative Easing, or in plainer English, PRINTING MONEY TO PAY DEBTS, is another costly endeavor. Our politicians had better read up on their history. This is an immense mistake...and the VERY SAME MISTAKE that has set off disastrous inflations in numerous countries, bankrupted millions of honest citizens around the world, and caused serious economic and social disruptions including wars, revolutions and national bankruptcies.
Politicians opt for Quantitative Easing because it serves their purpose. The politicians had a big role in causing the financial problems, with their decades of cheerleading for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and with their pressure on banks to make home loans to those who had no hope of paying their lenders back.
PLEASE DO NOT GET CONFUSED BY THE CHANGE IN TERMINOLOGY...THE TOXIC ASSETS ARE DERIVATIVES.
The politicians looked the other way and cheered for more broad home ownership while:
· buyers who could not afford the houses they were buying lied to lenders (many downloaded from the Internet fraudulent K-1's and 1099's to submit to lenders to help with their deception)
· real estate finance and sales professionals engaged in several kinds of fraud due to the high commissions and fees they earn from each transaction
· greedy bankers from Wall Street (whose crimes have been plastered in the papers in recent weeks) who created new derivatives that made it easy to sell the toxic assets to themselves and others
· greedy accounting and rating agency participants who helped perpetrate the overvaluation of the toxic assets
Now, to deflect the blame from themselves, the politicians are engaging in the theatre of blame...pretending that they did not know about so many of the things that they have known all along, such as big pay and bonuses to their big donors at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wall Street firms, and in the real estate industry (which was for years the biggest political donor in the U.S.).
The politicians must think the public is so stupid as not to realize what a fraud has been perpetrated by all of the various parties.
Maybe the public is slow to gather the details, but they get the general thrust of the problem. There were too many greedy people making too many political donations to Congress...and too little oversight by the supposed regulators.
None of this is new. Please feel free to review our archives at www.guildinvestment.com to see what we have said about the derivatives crisis numerous times in the years before the problem came to public attention. A further review of our archives will show that we have discussed many global economic and financial events long before they hit the public's radar.
In our opinion, one of the worst mistakes thus far is currently being made, and in a few months or years the public will come to realize it. Just as we notified our readers about the problems with derivatives/toxic assets years before the public became aware of it, this latest tragic mistake is another one that we will discuss in our letters long before the public comes to understand it.
With respect to fixing the banking system, our leaders in Washington appear to be ignoring the advice of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who as one of President Obama's advisors, suggests going back to a much less levered banking system. Paul Volcker suggests returning to something much like the banking system that existed under the Glass-Stegal Act. Instead, the politicians are opting for Treasury Secretary Geithner's plan which includes continuing with a more highly levered banking and finance system.
Why, after all of the problems caused by excess leverage, would they opt for the Geithner plan? Could it be that the financial institutions are too connected, and have been huge donors to many of the politicians at the national level?
England, Switzerland, the U.S., and many other countries have begun to use quantitative easing "money printing" to create a lower currency so they can export their way to prosperity. The countries want to state that they are pro free trade, so they will use the excuse that 'our currency has fallen, and that is why our exports are up and imports are down' argument. This, of course, is a misrepresentation.
When you lower the value of your currency to increase economic activity, it usually leads to more trade, more exports, and more cash in the financial system to spur consumption. Another result is that you encourage inflation. It will work. You will get inflation and perhaps some small economic growth. So it may still be a depression, but an inflationary depression.
The very politicians who are posturing that they care about the elderly, the retired, and low income groups are today creating a circumstance that will devastate those very groups with inflation. Inflation hurts primarily the poor, those on fixed income, and the retired. This is because it is hard for them to work and earn money at the new inflated pay rates. They are forced to sit by and watch as their savings be gradually eaten up by inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of their money.
We expect the U.S. dollar to fall and will invest accordingly.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
SEXTING ON TRIAL
Grown-up lawyers are trying to figure out how the law applies to all the things kids do with technology.
I think about the parents when I hear about cases like this. The parents of the teenage girls are placed in the position of having to argue for the right of their precious babies to send topless pictures of themselves to be passed around the school. And spend two years of their lives doing it. And I thought I had problems.
Grown-up lawyers are trying to figure out how the law applies to all the things kids do with technology.
In one of the first civil rights suits to focus on the growing practice of "sexting," lawyers for the ACLU of Pennsylvania will be asking a federal judge today to protect three teenage girls from the threat of criminal charges for using their cell phones to take and send semi-nude photographs of themselves.
I think about the parents when I hear about cases like this. The parents of the teenage girls are placed in the position of having to argue for the right of their precious babies to send topless pictures of themselves to be passed around the school. And spend two years of their lives doing it. And I thought I had problems.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
THE BURSTING BUBBLE
This is an excellent rendering of what has happened in the economy:
The central banks hold $845 billion in gold. But of course, currency is no longer pegged to gold.
The money supply = $3.9 trillion = notes + coins + reserves.
$39 trillion was borrowed against it, using the "fractional reserve" system that is built on the premise that everybody won't want their money at once.
Derivatives got around the limits on how much could be borrowed, to the tune of $62 trillion.
Easy money created a huge asset bubble of $290 trillion, where the price of assets greatly exceeded any measure of the world's wealth.
It was all happy time as long as people bought in to the idea that the economy would keep growing and growing -- an irrational idea but people were making money by pretending that it could be true. Eventually, of course, the Ponzi scheme collapses like a house of cards and many get screwed.
This is an excellent rendering of what has happened in the economy:
The central banks hold $845 billion in gold. But of course, currency is no longer pegged to gold.
The money supply = $3.9 trillion = notes + coins + reserves.
$39 trillion was borrowed against it, using the "fractional reserve" system that is built on the premise that everybody won't want their money at once.
Derivatives got around the limits on how much could be borrowed, to the tune of $62 trillion.
Easy money created a huge asset bubble of $290 trillion, where the price of assets greatly exceeded any measure of the world's wealth.
It was all happy time as long as people bought in to the idea that the economy would keep growing and growing -- an irrational idea but people were making money by pretending that it could be true. Eventually, of course, the Ponzi scheme collapses like a house of cards and many get screwed.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
THE OTHER BLACKLIST
Remember Dwight Schultz from the A-Team? This is an interesting article about trying to make a living as a conservative actor in Hollywood.
Big Hollywood also has an article that explain how Jon Stewart and Bill Maher for hide behind comedy while delivering a steady partisan message.
Both were interesting.
Remember Dwight Schultz from the A-Team? This is an interesting article about trying to make a living as a conservative actor in Hollywood.
Big Hollywood also has an article that explain how Jon Stewart and Bill Maher for hide behind comedy while delivering a steady partisan message.
Both were interesting.
Monday, March 16, 2009
E's BEST BUSINESS BOOKS
I have on my shelf a book called THE BEST BUSINESS BOOKS EVER and another called THE 100 BEST BUSINESS BOOKS OF ALL TIME. The lists have quite a bit of overlap, as you would expect, and I've read 18 on each list. If I had to recommend just five personal favorites, and using a broad definition of "business book," I'd start here (with main takeaways, from memory):
1. THE EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE by Peter Drucker.
a. The only thing you can measure is results. And the only thing you should measure is results.
b. Results exist only on the outside.
c. Know thy time. Most people don't have a very good idea of how they actually spend their time.
d. Time is an utterly non-renewable resource (unlike money, capital, workers) and must be invested purposefully.
e. Make strengths productive.
f. Do not spend valuable time trying to turn weaknesses into mediocrities.
2. THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF BEN FRANKLIN.
a. Timeless principles of industry, frugality, self-management, enterprise and leadership.
b. Lessons in technology transfer from a renowned inventor-capitalist.
c. A useful history lesson.
d. A useful model for writing anything in terms of structure and style.
3. WARFIGHTING by USMC.
a. The object of war is to win.
b. You gain decisive advantage by hitting your enemy decisively at their point of greatest vulnerabilty.
c. Moral considerations trump direct orders.
d. Some prefer THE ART OF WAR by Sun Tzu or ON WAR by von Clausewitz. I like this one.
4. GOOD TO GREAT by Jim Collins.
a. First get the right people on the bus and the wrong people off the bus.
b. Don't worry about where you're driving the bus until you have the right people on and the wrong people off.
c. You don't have to worry about how to motivate people when you get the right people on the bus.
d. Get people in the right seats.
e. Then decide where to steer the bus.
f. Great leaders have a paradoxical combination of humility and professional will.
g. Great organizations commit to doing just a couple of things relentlessly well.
5. THE KNOWING-DOING GAP by Pfeffer and Sutton.
a. Something has to get done, and somebody has to do it.
b. If you do it, then you will know.
c. In America you get ahead more by sounding smart than by being smart. You sound smarter when you are critical than when you agree.
d. Successful problem solvers think when they've had the discussion and solved the problem, they're done. But nothing actually changes until something happens next.
e. Good strategy is obvious. What separates winners from losers is disciplined implementation of the obvious.
f. Disciplined implementation isn't sexy, just successful.
Honorable Mention:
6. MANAGING TRANSITIONS by William Bridges. Managing organizational change is about dealing with the emotions people have around letting go.
7. THE 7 HABITS OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE PEOPLE by Stephen Covey. Because we are humans not Pavlovian dogs, we can choose how we respond to stimuli. Seek first to understand, then to be understood.
8. THE FIFTH DISCIPLINE by Peter Senge. Every system is perfectly designed to produce the outcomes it produces. Whoa.
9. THE VISUAL DISPLAY OF QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION by Edward Tufte. The higher the information-to-ink ratio, the more effective your communication.
10. PLEASE UNDERSTAND ME by Kiersey and Bates. Understanding personality types is critical to working effectively with others. Understanding your own personality and temperament will set you up for success rather than failure.
Articles:
1. "Management Time: Who's Got the Monkey?" by William Oncken. Don't let others' monkeys jump from their shoulders to yours for care and feeding.
2. "Leadership That Gets Results" by Daniel Goleman. Discusses six main leadership styles, when to use each, and which ones generally work best.
I would love to hear your favorite books in this or any genre.
I have on my shelf a book called THE BEST BUSINESS BOOKS EVER and another called THE 100 BEST BUSINESS BOOKS OF ALL TIME. The lists have quite a bit of overlap, as you would expect, and I've read 18 on each list. If I had to recommend just five personal favorites, and using a broad definition of "business book," I'd start here (with main takeaways, from memory):
1. THE EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE by Peter Drucker.
a. The only thing you can measure is results. And the only thing you should measure is results.
b. Results exist only on the outside.
c. Know thy time. Most people don't have a very good idea of how they actually spend their time.
d. Time is an utterly non-renewable resource (unlike money, capital, workers) and must be invested purposefully.
e. Make strengths productive.
f. Do not spend valuable time trying to turn weaknesses into mediocrities.
2. THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF BEN FRANKLIN.
a. Timeless principles of industry, frugality, self-management, enterprise and leadership.
b. Lessons in technology transfer from a renowned inventor-capitalist.
c. A useful history lesson.
d. A useful model for writing anything in terms of structure and style.
3. WARFIGHTING by USMC.
a. The object of war is to win.
b. You gain decisive advantage by hitting your enemy decisively at their point of greatest vulnerabilty.
c. Moral considerations trump direct orders.
d. Some prefer THE ART OF WAR by Sun Tzu or ON WAR by von Clausewitz. I like this one.
4. GOOD TO GREAT by Jim Collins.
a. First get the right people on the bus and the wrong people off the bus.
b. Don't worry about where you're driving the bus until you have the right people on and the wrong people off.
c. You don't have to worry about how to motivate people when you get the right people on the bus.
d. Get people in the right seats.
e. Then decide where to steer the bus.
f. Great leaders have a paradoxical combination of humility and professional will.
g. Great organizations commit to doing just a couple of things relentlessly well.
5. THE KNOWING-DOING GAP by Pfeffer and Sutton.
a. Something has to get done, and somebody has to do it.
b. If you do it, then you will know.
c. In America you get ahead more by sounding smart than by being smart. You sound smarter when you are critical than when you agree.
d. Successful problem solvers think when they've had the discussion and solved the problem, they're done. But nothing actually changes until something happens next.
e. Good strategy is obvious. What separates winners from losers is disciplined implementation of the obvious.
f. Disciplined implementation isn't sexy, just successful.
Honorable Mention:
6. MANAGING TRANSITIONS by William Bridges. Managing organizational change is about dealing with the emotions people have around letting go.
7. THE 7 HABITS OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE PEOPLE by Stephen Covey. Because we are humans not Pavlovian dogs, we can choose how we respond to stimuli. Seek first to understand, then to be understood.
8. THE FIFTH DISCIPLINE by Peter Senge. Every system is perfectly designed to produce the outcomes it produces. Whoa.
9. THE VISUAL DISPLAY OF QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION by Edward Tufte. The higher the information-to-ink ratio, the more effective your communication.
10. PLEASE UNDERSTAND ME by Kiersey and Bates. Understanding personality types is critical to working effectively with others. Understanding your own personality and temperament will set you up for success rather than failure.
Articles:
1. "Management Time: Who's Got the Monkey?" by William Oncken. Don't let others' monkeys jump from their shoulders to yours for care and feeding.
2. "Leadership That Gets Results" by Daniel Goleman. Discusses six main leadership styles, when to use each, and which ones generally work best.
I would love to hear your favorite books in this or any genre.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
ARI VS. MATHEWS
Sorry to be throwing all of these film clips on here, but Ari Fleisher's performance on HARDBALL is worth seeing. Via The Corner:
Sorry to be throwing all of these film clips on here, but Ari Fleisher's performance on HARDBALL is worth seeing. Via The Corner:
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
HE'S NOT EVERYTHING WE READ INTO HIM
It's worth reading the whole thing, because he quotes each of the authors who were duped.
The ranks indeed are filling with the disaffected and the disappointed — Chris Buckley, Maureen Dowd, David Brooks, David Gergen, and even that gynecological sleuth and blogger Andrew Sullivan. And then there is the very angry Marty Peretz. Their complaints are varied but expressed with equal amounts of remorse and bitterness. They all have been done wrong by Barack.
They and the rest of the country are figuring out the bitter truth: Obama bears little resemblance to the moderate and soothing figure who tied up John McCain in knots. He bears even less resemblance to the Agent of Change. Rather he’s pretty much the Chicago pol who went to the Senate to be its most liberal member.
And for the wounded Obama supporters, we can offer just one bit of counsel: you have lots of company. There are trading floors filled with sympathetic souls and businesses filled with stunned executives. They didn’t get what they bargained for either. Just ask Jim Cramer. Oh yes, please do invite him to your sessions when he’s not busy with the “I lost my life’s savings” support group.
It's worth reading the whole thing, because he quotes each of the authors who were duped.
BALL
I enjoy the World Baseball Classic. It's real baseball in early March and I don't care who wins.
I bought and will finally read MONEYBALL after years of recommendations from Dude and others.
Here's a sneak peak of what Pirates fans have to look forward to this year. This photo is priceless. (The ball fell for a double yesterday.) The Bucs begin their 17th consecutive losing season in about a month. They are tearing up the Grapefruit League though. I have tentative plans to see FLA @ PIT on April 22.
SWINGS
In the 1960s, with 68% of the Senate, the Democratic Party was celebrating the death of the GOP. Then their own policies energized conservative sentiment and gave us Republican presidents for 20 of the next 24 years. Pat Buchanan:
Why did LBJ fail? He overloaded the circuits. He tried to do it all. He misread a national desire for continuity after Kennedy's death as a mandate for a lunge to the left and a great leap forward with the largest expansion of government since the New Deal.
By the winter of 1968, Lyndon Johnson was a broken president.
History never repeats itself exactly. But Barack Obama is making the same mistakes today that LBJ made in 1965.
He has ordered 17,000 more U.S. troops into Afghanistan, as the situation deteriorates and the NATO allies pull out. He has no exit strategy. He has read a repudiation of George Bush as a mandate for a government seizure of wealth and power that exceeds anything attempted in the Great Society.
Fully half of the $3.55 trillion in spending Obama will preside over this year will not be covered by tax revenue but by red ink. The money will have to be borrowed from abroad or printed by the Fed.
Not only is Barack running a deficit four times as large as Bush's largest, he has called for $1 trillion in new taxes on America's most successful, who have already seen their savings and pensions ravaged.
He wants a cap-and-trade system to deal with a global-warming or climate-change crisis many scientists believe is a hoax. He is going to provide health care for all, including immigrants, millions of whom arrive uninsured every year.
He is going to plunge scores of billions more into education, though education has eaten up the wealth of an empire, as SAT scores sink further and further below the apogee of 1964, before LBJ and the feds barged in. He is going to ask Congress for authority to spend another $750 billion rescuing the banks.
He is going to find the cure for cancer. He is going to ensure every kid gets a college education.
He is going to drop half of all wage-earners off the tax rolls, while the top 2 percent, who already pay 40 percent of all income taxes, are forced to cough up more.
Obama is misreading the election returns. When America voted to cancel the White House lease of Mr. Bush, it did not vote Barack Obama a blank check.
By misinterpreting his mandate, Obama has accomplished something John McCain could not -- unite the Republican Party and instill in it a new esprit de corps. For the Obama budget is an insult to the core belief of the party -- that free people, not coercive government, should shape the character of society.
By daring Republicans to fight on the issue of a $1.75 trillion deficit, Obama has liberated the GOP from any obligation to him. He has come out of the closet as a radical liberal spoiling for a fight over an agenda of radical change.
Sooner than any might have thought, we have clarity.
In the 1960s, with 68% of the Senate, the Democratic Party was celebrating the death of the GOP. Then their own policies energized conservative sentiment and gave us Republican presidents for 20 of the next 24 years. Pat Buchanan:
Why did LBJ fail? He overloaded the circuits. He tried to do it all. He misread a national desire for continuity after Kennedy's death as a mandate for a lunge to the left and a great leap forward with the largest expansion of government since the New Deal.
By the winter of 1968, Lyndon Johnson was a broken president.
History never repeats itself exactly. But Barack Obama is making the same mistakes today that LBJ made in 1965.
He has ordered 17,000 more U.S. troops into Afghanistan, as the situation deteriorates and the NATO allies pull out. He has no exit strategy. He has read a repudiation of George Bush as a mandate for a government seizure of wealth and power that exceeds anything attempted in the Great Society.
Fully half of the $3.55 trillion in spending Obama will preside over this year will not be covered by tax revenue but by red ink. The money will have to be borrowed from abroad or printed by the Fed.
Not only is Barack running a deficit four times as large as Bush's largest, he has called for $1 trillion in new taxes on America's most successful, who have already seen their savings and pensions ravaged.
He wants a cap-and-trade system to deal with a global-warming or climate-change crisis many scientists believe is a hoax. He is going to provide health care for all, including immigrants, millions of whom arrive uninsured every year.
He is going to plunge scores of billions more into education, though education has eaten up the wealth of an empire, as SAT scores sink further and further below the apogee of 1964, before LBJ and the feds barged in. He is going to ask Congress for authority to spend another $750 billion rescuing the banks.
He is going to find the cure for cancer. He is going to ensure every kid gets a college education.
He is going to drop half of all wage-earners off the tax rolls, while the top 2 percent, who already pay 40 percent of all income taxes, are forced to cough up more.
Obama is misreading the election returns. When America voted to cancel the White House lease of Mr. Bush, it did not vote Barack Obama a blank check.
By misinterpreting his mandate, Obama has accomplished something John McCain could not -- unite the Republican Party and instill in it a new esprit de corps. For the Obama budget is an insult to the core belief of the party -- that free people, not coercive government, should shape the character of society.
By daring Republicans to fight on the issue of a $1.75 trillion deficit, Obama has liberated the GOP from any obligation to him. He has come out of the closet as a radical liberal spoiling for a fight over an agenda of radical change.
Sooner than any might have thought, we have clarity.
Monday, March 09, 2009
AMERICA OR BUST
An 11-page Citizen's Guide provides clear resources to understand and explore our federal government finances. Links to that and other resources here.
Here's a confidence builder that our government will solve all our economic problems. From the Journal of Accountancy, March 2009:
Spoiler warning:
Chart 2 -- "Debt Held by the Public" (trend line looks like a rocket launching into space)
Chart 5 -- "Current Trends Are Not Sustainable"
Exhibit -- 2080: Total Government Cost is More Than Three Times Revenue
An 11-page Citizen's Guide provides clear resources to understand and explore our federal government finances. Links to that and other resources here.
Here's a confidence builder that our government will solve all our economic problems. From the Journal of Accountancy, March 2009:
"For the 12th consecutive year, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said it could not express an opinion on the consolidated financial statement of the U.S. government—other than the Statement of Social Insurance—because of numerous material internal control weaknesses and other limitations.
Acting Comptroller General Gene Dodaro, the head of the GAO, said in a press release that the agency’s ability to render an opinion on the accrual-basis consolidated financial statement was hampered by three major issues that include “serious financial management problems at the Department of Defense, the federal government’s inability to adequately account for and reconcile intragovernmental activity and balances between federal agencies, and the federal government’s ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial statements.”
Dodaro also noted material weaknesses related to improper payments, information security and tax collection activities. He also noted that at least three major agencies (Defense, Homeland Security and NASA) failed to receive clean opinions."
Spoiler warning:
Chart 2 -- "Debt Held by the Public" (trend line looks like a rocket launching into space)
Chart 5 -- "Current Trends Are Not Sustainable"
Exhibit -- 2080: Total Government Cost is More Than Three Times Revenue
Sunday, March 08, 2009
THE BRITISH PM FLAP
If ever a man had a tiger by the tail. There is a reason President's do not age gracefully in office, and choosing one with no prior executive experience and scant political experience and no real private enterprise experience was supposed to lead to recovery, hope, optimism, and reconciliation.
Brains do not equal ability as Sir Saunders taught me during his IQ studies. There is no substitute for the hard work it takes along the way before you get certain promotions and Obama skipped that hard work step. It looks like four years of packing the teleprompter on every visit while Prime Minister Pelosi quietly runs the country from Congress.
Barack Obama's offhand approach to Gordon Brown's Washington visit last week came about because the president was facing exhaustion over America's economic crisis and is unable to focus on foreign affairs, the Sunday Telegraph has been told.
Sources close to the White House say Mr Obama and his staff have been "overwhelmed" by the economic meltdown and have voiced concerns that the new president is not getting enough rest.
British officials, meanwhile, admit that the White House and US State Department staff were utterly bemused by complaints that the Prime Minister should have been granted full-blown press conference and a formal dinner, as has been customary. They concede that Obama aides seemed unfamiliar with the expectations that surround a major visit by a British prime minister.
But Washington figures with access to Mr Obama's inner circle explained the slight by saying that those high up in the administration have had little time to deal with international matters, let alone the diplomatic niceties of the special relationship.
Allies of Mr Obama say his weary appearance in the Oval Office with Mr Brown illustrates the strain he is now under, and the president's surprise at the sheer volume of business that crosses his desk.
If ever a man had a tiger by the tail. There is a reason President's do not age gracefully in office, and choosing one with no prior executive experience and scant political experience and no real private enterprise experience was supposed to lead to recovery, hope, optimism, and reconciliation.
Brains do not equal ability as Sir Saunders taught me during his IQ studies. There is no substitute for the hard work it takes along the way before you get certain promotions and Obama skipped that hard work step. It looks like four years of packing the teleprompter on every visit while Prime Minister Pelosi quietly runs the country from Congress.
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