Friday, March 07, 2008


I checked out the odds before this week's elimination and after to see how they changed. Bodog actually updates the odds between performances and still ranks David Archuleta as the prohibitive favorite. You would have to bet $2.50 for a $1 return if he goes on to win the competition. The other 15 contestants ranked like this for every dollar wagered:

David Cook $2.05
Brooke White $2.36
Carly Smithson $2.50
Kady Malloy $2.56
David Hernandez $3.50
Michael Johns $4.00
Kristy Lee Cook $5.00
Jason Castro $6.00
Chikezie Eze $7.50
Ramiele Malubay $8.00
Asia'h Epperson $14.00
Syesha Mercado $15.35
Danny Noriega $100.00
Amanda Overmyer $100.00
Luke Menard $100.00

The names in red were eliminated this week. I thought all four were easy to predict. It surprises me to see that Kady Malloy was ranked so generously. David Cook's stock got a tremendous boost with his brilliant electric guitar rendition of Lionel Ritchie's Hello. That was the only song I've heard so far that sounded like it should be on the radio. Archuleta's Imagine got a lot of hype last week for its brilliance. I like the kid plenty, but he is only my fourth favorite guy behind Cook, Johns, and Castro. I don't know how you eliminate any of those guys. They very well could comprise the top four if they at some point stop eliminating people by gender. The only girls that have a shot at the top four are Malubay, Smithson, and Brooke White, but I don't like any of them as much as the fourth best guy.

So after the Thursday broadcast, Archuleta is still the odds-on favorite with a $1.30 wager bringing a $1 return. The remainder of the top 12 rounds out like this:

Carly Smithson $5.03
Michael Johns $7.25
Jason Castro $10.09
Ramiele Malubay $14.17
Brooke White $17.25
Syesha Mercado $19.00
David Cook $25.52
Kristy Lee Cook $75.00
David Hernandez $75.00
Amanda Overmyer $125.00
Chikezie Eze $200.00

It's funny how people became bigger longshots despite having a good week, like Brooke dropping from third overall to sixth. And how the heck does David Cook drop in the rankings? If I was putting money down at this point, I would definitely take those 25.52:1 odds. At some point, the vote will be more indicative of the country's taste because at this point, Simon is still leading the vote with comments such as "I would be absolutely amazed if you made it through to next week." And then it is no surprise when that guy is eliminated the following week. It will eventually get down to half a dozen singers with no major flaws in their game and the judges are going to say they were all brilliant and then people will vote for their favorite rather than Simon's. I think Archuleta could fall by the wayside in the top three because Johns and Cook have already developed stage persona while Archuleta is still relying on his fresh-faced kid interpretation of songs.

Anyways, I'll check back in at the top six and here is my fearless prediction, assuming we are still eliminating one of each gender up until then:


1 comment:

Sir Saunders said...

Yeah, I agree they were easy picks. It's cool getting the odds though, thanks for the update.

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