My friend and political science professor, Dr. Alfred Cuzan has an interesting article on Tech Central. It's a historical analysis of how incumbents fared according to their fiscal policy. The long and the short of it is Bush is an under dog for re-election according to history, because of high increased spending. But the war and a recovering economy helped FDR and Reagan respectively, and Bush may have both going for him when the election comes around. But will the war be as big of an issue in November?
Click on the link to see the chart.
This relationship between fiscal policy and how well the incumbents do at the polls is "statistically significant." In other words, the probability of obtaining it at random is extremely low. Which suggests a simple explanation: voters are allergic to fiscal expansion and reward tight-fisted presidents who implement fiscal cutbacks. This would not have surprised Machiavelli, who advised his would-be prince to practice fiscal parsimony. As the Florentine put it:
So stop spending money, Bush!
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