Thursday, June 28, 2007


Thursday’s defeat of the immigration bill will boost the chances of a Democratic victory in 2008, giving Hillary Clinton – the probable Democratic candidate – a strong advantage, according to political strategist Dick Morris.

But a stronger move would have been to legalize 12-20 million people poised to vote for Democrats?
Morris added that the price Republicans will pay "is likely to be compounded by the probability that a Democratic Congress and president after the 2008 election will pass some form of immigration reform, probably a bill even more to the liking of the Hispanic community than the Bush proposal Congress just defeated.”

Wrong! This bill would have made amnesty a foregone conclusion and Hilary could have easily ignored enforcing the borders, and found ways around the other parts that she didn't like. Republicans have been very hesitant to oppose Bush the last 6 years and went along with him on things like the Medicare Prescription Drug benefit and No Child Left Behind. Those things never would have passed if a Democrat had been President. Hilary in 2008 will give Republicans even more reason to dig in and filibuster a new proposal. If for no other reason than the fund raising opportunities it offers.

And an anti-amnesty Republican candidate versus Hilary in 2008 makes this a live issue. Does Hilary really want to defend the idea that entering the country illegally should come with no penalty and citizenship is a product of border cunning?
How do you think Newt would frame it? The right Republican can make this issue stick to a Democrat.

I can't leave without commenting on this nugget.
"In 2004, George Bush made progress among Latino voters, coming within 10 points of John Kerry among Hispanics after losing them by 30 points to Al Gore four years before. But in 2006, Latinos voted Democrat by more than 40 points, according to exit polls, because of their anger at the harsh Republican immigration proposals.

Bush comes from a state with a large Hispanic population. He has an Hispanic sister-in-law. Has an understanding of the Hispanic culture that Kerry doesn't. He lost the vote by ten points. It's possible in a generation or two that Hispanics will become more politically conservative as they prosper and assimilate, but there is no scenario in which Republicans by importing uneducated Hispanics yield a majority of them for the Republicans. And there is no indication that current conservative Hispanics favor the illegals getting away with it.

Do you see the pattern where Bush is always on the defensive thinking that any Democrat idea is a slam dunk and he better hurry and think of a Republican version. Therefore we get No Child Left Behind and a drug benefit under Medicare. If he would have put the same effort towards comprehensive tax reform instead of immigration, voters in both parties would have supported him to same extent they opposed this. He had both houses of Congress and never even mentioned it. That's the sadness of this whole administration and why I won't be sorry to see it go.

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