HOW THE POLLS DID
Nobody ever seems to follow up afterward on how close the pollsters came to the actual results. So today I provide that service. In some cases, the "actual" results are not quite final, but almost all of them represent at least a 98% tabulation.
State... RealClearPolitics poll avg... Result... How the polls did
(R)
California... McCain +0.3... McCain +8... McCain significantly outperformed polls
New York... McCain +31.4... McCain +23... McCain significantly underperformed polls
Illinois... McCain +15.7... McCain +18... outcome consistent with polls.
Missouri... McCain +5.5... McCain +4... outcome consistent with polls.
New Jersey... McCain +26.2... McCain +27... outcome consistent with polls.
Georgia... McCain +3.3... Huckabee +2... polls projected wrong winner.
Arizona... McCain +16.3... McCain +14... outcome consistent with polls.
Tennessee... McCain +3.3... Huckabee +2... polls projected wrong winner.
Overall: Polls in CA and NY got the winner right but the spread wrong. The polls were pretty close in most states. McCain got all the pre-vote news coverage because he was leading in all the big blue states that were being polled. Romney won 7 states that nobody talked about. Huckabee's 5 wins are very impressive consistent the tidal forces working against him.
(D)
California... Obama +1.2... Clinton +10... polls blew it big time
New York... Clinton +17.2... Clinton +17... spot on
Illinois... Obama +33... Obama +23... right winner, wrong spread
Missouri... Clinton +5.7... Obama +1... wrong winner
New Jersey... Clinton +7.7... Clinton +10... close enough
Georgia... Obama +18... Obama +36... right winner, wrong spread
Arizona... Clinton +6.0... Clinton +9... close enough
Tennessee... Clinton +13.0... Clinton +13... spot on
Overall: Clinton defied the polls in CA as she did in NV. Very accurate polling in some states. Missing by 10 points in Illinois and 18 points in Georgia is well outside the margin of error, but since the errors were in opposite directions you can't read in a conspiracy theory.
A Blog of Current Events and Ancient Issues.
1 comment:
I wonder how much early voting is impacting the pollsters.
Post a Comment