Saturday, September 06, 2008


I spoke with both my mom and dad on separate phone calls this week. They are Florida seniors, regular voters at the presidential level, with a generally casual interest in politics.

First my dad. He was so fired up about McCain-Palin, particularly Palin. He was knowledgeable and interested, fully soured on Obama and fully enthused all of a sudden about the GOP ticket. I don't remember ever talking more than casually with him about politics. We went on for at least half an hour. He was fired up!

The day after McCain's speech, I talked to my mom and again it turned to politics. She was already rabidly anti-Hillary and sour on Obama but suddenly she was so excited about McCain. She loved his speech. She loves his background. She gushed, "I REALLY like John McCain. I REALLY like him." I pressed for details. She thinks he is honest, has strong character, is plain spoken... qualities that get people elected - and which are very much in doubt about Obama.

So if this very small, unscientific poll has any validity, things are suddenly looking very good for maintaining the White House.

I was looking at contributions data at today and saw, to my surprise, that McCain's #1 "industry group" among his sources of support is... "Retired"... by a 3-to-1 margin over #2 "Lawyers/Law Firms" (Obama's #1 source of support). (Trial lawyers heart Democrats.)

(Aside: another interesting finding at opensecrets is how McCain's support is heavily male, about 72% through July compared to 58% male for Obama. [Not sure how they assign gender to illegal contributions from 'hkdkj hksdl' and such.] I wonder if the gap will start to narrow with Sarahcuda on the ticket.)

Unlike his parents, Swish is reserving judgment. Not sure what he thinks about chicks in the mix, other than I know not to mention Hillary Clinton in his presence.

The upshot is that, based on my polling sample of 2 likely voters, the GOP convention seems to have played very well with its target market, perhaps better than it did with the highly partisan base. Margin of error 50%.

The more I think about McCain's speech (which now I am doing in bed, oh my) and how it fits into the overall campaign strategy, the more impressed I am with it, and the more I realize the campaign planners are a lot smarter than me.


Dude said...

Dude's tip for a healthy marriage:
Don't let on to the wife that you think about McCain in bed.

I'll tell you what I really liked about McCain's speech. Everybody so far has detailed his time in captivity as if the suffering in itself has produced an upgrade in his character. He's a great man because he's had it so bad. McCain got up there and referenced his captivity in such a way that he sold the idea that he had reached his breaking point in that prison and was fundamentally changed at his core. He was transformed from a me-first soldier to a country-first patriot and his life ever since has been bigger than himself. And then he encouraged us to feel the same with his pep rally finale - stand up and fight with me bit. He's not a great speaker but that was really touching. I like when the gop message is duty above self which contrasts with the lib message of getting what's yours from the rich.

Tom said...

I'm glad I'm in the minority about the speech. I can't believe Swish isn't sold, though.

My parents love Palin so the Florida polling continues to rack up votes.

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