Junto Boys

2008

Aficionados know that the campaign has already begun despite the fact that most Americans are oblivious to it. A lot can change before then, but here are my current thoughts:

Unlike Republicans who give losing candidates more chances, such as Nixon in 1968, Reagan in 1980, and Dole in 1996, Democrats almost always choose a fresh face. After losing twice with Adlai Stevenson versus Ike, they have run mint condition John Kennedy, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Michaek Dukakis, and Bill Clinton. Retreads like Humphrey and Gore only got nods because they were incumbent VPs. Therefore, John Kerry and John Edwards might as well practice their skiing and write their memoirs.

If Al Gore wants to run again, he might make it interesting in the primaries, but Hilary Clinton will beat him nonetheless. The division caused by a close race between the first serious woman candidate versus her husband's VP will cause so much turmoil in the Democrat party that I don't think they could recover in time for the general election. Hilary represents not only feminism but the kind of practical politics that half the party and most of the money will get behind. Gore represents the heart of the party represented by people with far less money, but much more political conviction. Many Gore supporters will be angry that Hilary's opportunism stood in the way of their favorite son and some won't vote at all. The question is how many. Hilary is better off if she can get Democrat operatives to make Gore stand down. She has an easier journey to the white house without him around.

The Republicans have far more questions as I can see. The best two candidates don't seem to be interested in running. Jeb Bush understandably doesn't want to be the victim of Bush fatigue although he is probably the best Governor in America. Dick Cheney is reviled by the Left, but speaks with such clear thought and calmness that I don't think they could paint him as an extremist in the general election. If for no other reason, health problems will make it very tough for him to run. I would vote for either of them in the primary if they did run.

John McCain thinks he's the favorite, but he's dreaming. His glory-hounding, headline grabbing darling with the national media persona may make him feel important, but it's wearing thin with Republican stalwarts even though he'd most certainly beat Clinton. He's a leader on the war and deficit spending, but conservatives don't want an opportunist like McCain in the white house where he can further sell right wing principles down the river in the name of pragmatism. He traded a chance at the presidency for a legacy as the Godfather of campaign finance reform, a media issue that violates the first amendment.

Although he is much more reliably liberal than McCain, Guliani has real respect from conservatives for his no apology style of leadership and support for law and order. His
chance at the nomination would be tricky, but he could pull it off by moving just enough to the right on social issues to convince the base he won’t be grandstanding social issues in office. I think Republicans will forgive a pro-choice candidate if he isn’t giving NARAL speeches and he can support the ban on late-term procedures. A steady and reliable Guliani is preferable to the random and rabbit-eared McCain in my opinion.

I haven't seen anything from Bill Frist to make me vote for him in the primary. He seems earnest and hard working, yet incredibly bland. I don't see him beating Hilary in a debate.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

I don’t know enough about Sen. George Allen or Gov. Bill Owens although I understand them both to have mainstream conservative backers. Cato named Owens the best fiscal Governor in America a few years back. Jeb Bush was #2. Allen has also had experience as a Governor.

The Republicans have a lot of work to find the right person. Democrats already have theirs and it’s just a matter of whether she can beat whoever is picked to be her general election opponent.