Wednesday, January 09, 2008


I listened to a Zogby guy being called to task this morning for projecting Obama as a 10- to 12-point winner in NH. He talked about the 18 percent of NH voters who say they decided at the last minute, and theorized that with Obama the presumptive big winner on the Dem side, Independents voted in the Republican primary instead, where their thought their vote would matter more, which drained from Obama, lifted McCain, and artificially lifted Hillary.

I still believe in Hillary's inevitability, for better or worse. The Clinton machine is too powerful, relentless and totally without conscience.

Victor Davis Hanson nails it as usual:

Again, never underestimate the Clintonian team.

Hillary Clinton is in the midst of a complete focus-group/poll-driven/handler make-over. And to the degree she sticks to it, she will do fine. As we heard tonight, Hillary has now “found her voice”; she suddenly speaks more slowly, there are more bite-the-lip-like pauses, and she has been reminded not to go into frenetic panic mode or hit that screech-owl high note as much. She will seek out interviews, welcome questions, and be empathetic, accessible, and sensitive to the public.

Her New Hampshire victory speech was almost anti-Hillary (at least until the last two seconds of the old Hillary shrill-shouting): slow, deliberate, empathetic, a lot of personal voice — and Bill finally off the stage.Note that she thanked her mother and almost everyone else imaginable (even Biden, Dodd, etc.), but not Bill! — who, of course, in albatross fashion, blew up again on his stump, and ranted on about himself and how he has suffered so for the rest of us.

A final note: The campaign talking heads and opinion makers this season have been lousy, about the worst in memory — especially the “she’s won, she’s lost, she’s won...” feeding frenzy, and then writing the silly “end of the Clinton era” essays — all based on a few thousand Iowans, some bad polls in New Hampshire, and catch-up to what some other wrong pundit wrote an hour earlier. And remember, these are “experts” who pontificated each week on the real Iraq war.

They remind one of the ridiculous gnashing tropical carp, splashing about in Saddam’s old Baghdad pond.

Women vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat in the general election, and the Democrat who appeals most strongly to women will be in a very good position in November. That is why Obama's strong showing among women was such big news after Iowa, and why Hillary showed the makings of a tear the other day in New Hampshire: I am woman, see me cry. And the question that was asked was too perfect to be random: How do you do it? How do you maintain your makeup (used exclusively by women) and hair style (a uniquely female concern) during the grueling campaign calendar? It was a scripted moment to appeal to women. I have to hand it to them, the Clintons are good. Repulsive but good.
Note when she “opened her heart” there was an enhancing soft light around her, and her make-up was understated and pastelish — an aura effect.


Dude said...

I heard some interviews with female voters this morning on NPR. The women were planning to vote for Obama but then had a girl-power reversal explained as "when else have I been able to lend support to a very powerful woman who is now in need of my vote."

Another thing that troubles me: I keep hearing about how Hillary won the primary but if you look at the number of delegates handed out, it is a 9-9 tie with Obama. She won this primary like Gore won the presidency. The popular vote makes the news but aren't they really in it for the delegates?

E said...

I was wondering about that too. You only "win" the primary if you get all the delegates for winning. If you split the delegates, you only won in the sense that you get to spin it as having won. That being the case, why did every news team place such emphasis on who won the popular vote? Swish and I are not happy.

E said...

They're in it for the delegates, but the delegates they're in it for aren't New Hampshires. The good stuff meal is further down the buffet line. Right now it's all about exceeding expectations and creating positive momentum and narrowing the field. Giuliani skipped the rolls and salad and went straight for the beef. We'll see which strategy works. Thompson is still standing there trying to decide if he wants any corn. He should just get an ice cream cone and go back to Tennessee, the biggest disappointment of all.

Dude said...

I just wrote mucho then hit a button with my pinkie and it was gone.

Recap: I don't like Thompson's personality. He is playing the part of the reluctant hero but he is too terse and condescending when he should be engaging in full-out debate. If it wasn't for YouTube, I wouldn't know a thing about where he stands on the issues.

I didn't like McCain's snippy remarks to Romney during the NH debate. He is a guy who gets things done but often at the expense of too much compromise. The monotone is boring as hell. I would vote for him over any of the dems, but he's not my guy in the primary.

Paul was fun the first time but all he does is shout and it's wearing thin. He's wacky enough that I'm beginning to question if I truly am a Libertarian because I like the Republicans better.

Giuliani has some personal baggage that may cost him some love once he becomes a major player. He's tough but not heartless and everything he says makes sense to me. Huckabee actually makes some sense to me in his positions too which are not nearly so conservative as his social positions. I'm not into the whole far right social thing and I don't want this guy as president. He's a guy I would probably not vote for in the general election. He should lose steam eventually.

My second favorite candidate so far is Romney. He's a real gentlemen and handsome besides. The others don't seem to like him and make that clear but he stands up well to it. Maybe he's a flip-flopper or maybe not but what he's saying now resonates with me. I especially like how he links health care with immigration. We need to get more citizens into group insurance plans which would drive down the cost of healthcare using market forces. Presently we are footing the bill for illegals by overcharging the capable. We need to get the illegals either deported or legalized and then get them on a plan. People bitch about the uninsured but many people are uninsured by choice. Get everybody on the same legal footing and then give them the choice to join a plan or pay retail.

I rank the field thusly by personal preferance:


Dude said...

I am paying attention to the Dems this year because it's likely one of them triumphs and I want to be prepared. They all want to get out of Iraq which I don't think is a good idea, but war strategies usually are decided by advisers so I'm hopeful that they won't deliver on their promises of surrender.

What I'm really scared of is socialized heath care because I think that is just a horrible idea. I would even rather see a full withdrawal from Iraq than see medicine nationalized. Hillary tried hard to get it done and couldn't, so again, I'm hopeful that it just doesn't come to be even with a democratic president. The thing that scares me about McCain is that I can't be sure we don't wind up with socialized medicine if there's enough of a public outcry because he's all about getting legislation signed.

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